None Dare Call It Conservation.
Oil consumption in the United States dropped nearly 2 percent in the first quarter of 2008. If that trend holds, it would be the biggest percentage decline since the 1991-92 recession.
[...]
The statistics have some folks wondering whether the country has hit a consumption tipping point, amid $3.50-per-gallon gasoline and historically high crude oil prices.
— "Oil consumption at the tipping point in U.S.?" Star Tribune
The column quotes an academic who sees this dip as a sign conservation behavior is starting to take hold, but Jim Thill suggests it may just be more people can't afford the price, have no alternative to driving and are not happy about it.
With rapidly increasing demand in India and China, consumption in the U.S. isn't really the tipping point we should be concerned about, is it? When consumption really tips, price per gallon of gas and high crude prices will only be the part we could see coming.
In another post, Jim sees something else going on, citing a news release from Consumer Watchdog that says:
The White House clings to a pallid strategy of blaming OPEC even as it continues buying oil off the market at a rate of 1.5 million barrels a month for a Strategic Petroleum Reserve that is already filled to near-record levels.
In 2006 when gas prices made their surge toward $3 a gallon, Bush announced the government would stop buying for the strategic reserve to help bring down domestic prices. Now, in a much worse economy, with a weaker dollar, unprecedented prices and a costly oil supply protectorate (aka Operation Iraqi Freedom) dragging on, Bush continues to top off the reserve tank. Jim says,
I've come to the conclusion that no major media outlet is ever going to announce in a headline "We've reached Peak Oil!" But articles like this one suggest that hoarding behavior at the highest levels is well underway.
And why not? Among the 12 nations with most of the world's proven oil reserves Canada (mostly), Mexico and the U.S. were in 2007 estimated to control 212 billion barrels. Middle-eastern "allies" like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq control 571 billion. The rest (about 322 billion) is under Iran, Russia, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela. And most of those countries have state-owned or -controlled oil companies sitting on the reserves. The market will sort this all out, right?
Hoarding won't cover our oil habit. Expanding U.S. proven reserves beyond the current 21 billion barrels won't do it. Conservation in the U.S. — whether it's price-driven or principled — won't make much of a dent, and workable energy alternatives are a long way off.
We have to do all these things, of course. But I've come to the conclusion that no president is ever going to announce "We're bringing all our troops home from the Middle East!" Of the major presidential candidates, John McCain has come closest, but everyone in the running must by now know the truth of what they will be handed in 2009.
We can blame George Bush, but we also better look in the mirror.


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