Jonathan Gaw's By the Numbers column yesterday included this:
136
In the fifth year after a casino opens, percent
increase in robberies experienced by the county that is home to the
casino, according to a study by economists from the University of
Georgia and Baylor University, who looked at crime rates over 20 years
in every U.S. county. Counties also experienced double-digit increases
in aggravated assault, auto theft, burglary, larceny and rape by the
fifth year after a casino opened. Counties next to casino counties did
not experience compensating crime reductions.
8.6, 12.6
Controlling
for other factors, percentages of a county's property crimes and
violent crimes, respectively, that can be attributed to the presence of
a casino.
Gambling is one of those supposed freebies that lets us finance government without the pain of taxes. Supporters don't want us to see the added costs of gambling to society, or how it shifts more cost of government to average folks.
Here's the original study Gaw took his data from, I believe.
It also points up flaws in prior studies drawing more benign conclusions about casino gambling's impact. Even if you're not The Analyst, you can spot how research may be grinding an axe — or felling the forest so you only see a few trees. Here are some of those issues and infractions:
Who's the sponsor? Some of the studies were underwritten by the gambling industry, tourism organizations or law enforcement. This doesn't mean the research is skewed in their favor, but it could mean only the favorable findings are reported by the sponsor.
Who's in? Who's out? When data is being reported in relation to the population, make sure who's in the population — especially if a large transient population might be affected. For example, counties where Indian casinos operate may have a low population as measured by the Census; a larger population if workers (who may not reside in the county) are included; and a significantly larger population if customers are counted. Sometimes the visitors won't matter (impact on local school demand); but they could have a big impact on crime (as victims and perpetrators).
Qualitative differences. The researchers cite a study that blames increased crime on the influx of visitors because visitors are prime targets. However, national parks don't seem to attract visitors likely to commit or be victims of crimes. Ditto Disneyworld and Mall of America. They go on to say, "If visitors of any type are the predominant mechanism for crime, then Branson [Mo.] and Bloomington [Mn.] should be among the most crime-ridden places in North America... Bloomington received 7.7 million more visitors than Las Vegas [!!] but had a diluted crime rate less than 1/15th of Las Vegas's."
What's being counted? Some crime may be expected to rise in direct relation to casinos and casino crowds. For example, prostitution, assault, robbery, auto theft, and burglary. Other crimes may increase moderately, such as illegal gambling, embezzlement, rape and murder. Whereas, child abuse, perjury, arson and other crimes may see little impact. To get a better picture of casinos' impact, look at crimes that have a theoretical relationship to gambling. Including all crime dampens the apparent effect.
What's the context? Some of the studies finding no increase in crime after casinos moved into counties failed to take into consideration other factors, such as a parallel drop in crime nationally. Annual crime statistics within the county didn't reveal what a county-by-county comparison showed: while the casino county's crime didn't increase, neighboring counties lowered their crime rates.
Indirect impacts. I know personally two businesses that lost very substantial amounts of money to trusted employees with gambling addictions. In statistical terms, a million-dollar embezzlement counts as one more crime, equal to a car break-in, but it has a much greater impact. Crimes resulting from increased gambling pathology may not show up for years after studies covering a three to five year span following casino introduction — what the researchers call "intertemporal effects."
Spinmeisters at work. Notice how I used a study on casino gambling to buttress my point about all state-endorsed gambling? There could be a crime connection to be made, but I don't have the data to make it....
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